Could Strathmore see the coldest December in 100 years?

We've recently seen an incredible stretch of nice weather, with yesterday hitting a high of 8 °C and today's high sitting at 10°C. However, the warm weather won't be here to stay, as we could be cooling down significantly on Monday before hitting potentially record setting temperatures on December 1.

An early computer projected report shows the high on Dec. 1 could be -21°C, which would be the coldest recorded high since Dec. 1 of 1919. While this is Calgary's projection, Natalie Hasell with Environment Canada says Strathmore often uses the same projections as Calgary, and it could actually be even colder here than Calgary. While the early models are showing one of the coldest starts to December in Strathmore's history, Hasell says we shouldn't start preparing for a historic cold yet.

"That minus 21 degrees suggested for daytime high of December 1 is certainly within the realm of possibility. A number of models are pointing to temperatures that cold. However, they're not the only answers to the weather question, some models are suggesting quite a bit warmer conditions for the daytime maximum for December 1, so it's a little far away to have such certainty in a temperature forecast. This is more of a kind of wait and see scenario," she explained.

As for why Strathmore could be colder than Calgary, Hasell explained this is because of the heat island effect, which is when bigger cities tend to be hotter due to things like more car exhaust, more asphalt, and more buildings heating themselves.

While it's too early to start worrying about a historically cold day, Hasell explained we will definitely see cooler temperatures starting next week. The only question is whether or not we'll hit the potentially record cold days.

"We do see the entire scenario shifting from the very balmy, warm conditions you have now to quite a bit colder as we see a low pressure system develop on Saturday, Sunday and travel across into Alberta on Sunday and Monday. Your air will be from the North, so you'll be in a totally different air mass, and it makes sense that temperatures are going to fall. That I agree with, but will it fall all the way to minus 21 during the day? I don't know."

Even though Hasell says we shouldn't take the potential freezing December as a certainty, we should be ready to bundle up as we head into next week, as the forecast for next week is calling for potential snow and temperatures ranging from -10°C to -20°C.

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