As much as we want to hold to the summer months, until the 23 of September, the professionals at Environment and Climate Change Canada have news for us.
Weather Preparedness Meteorologist for Environment and Climate Change Canada Justin Shelley explains that in their eyes September 1 is what they like to call meteorological fall and that will run until the end of November.
"This is in contrast to (meteorological fall) the astronomical fall which is related to the equinox and the solstice and that all starts on September 23. Already we are seeing the fall outlooks. It is sort of warmer than normal and we've certainly seen that so far this September."
Calgary is averaging over 3 1/2 degrees above normal so far in September, which would make it one of the one of the warmer Septembers on record, Shelley says and if it were to maintain that pace specifically for Strathmore, typical daytime high this time of year than we are also averaging an above higher than normal temperatures.
"We are in that 17-18 feel, so a bit cooler throughout the last couple of days but it seems to be getting back into the 20's for the weekend and into the next week. However, we are expecting again warmer than normal conditions to persist."
Shelley says that El Niño is coming back into effect and that it is expected to persist through the fall and winter months.
"For us that means that we will get warmer than normal conditions. Precipitation can be hit or miss depending on the year because not every sort of El Niño performs the same way every year."
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern associated with the warming of the ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. El Niño occurs on average every two to seven years and typically lasts nine to 12 months.
"This October here might see some convective showers pop up periodically, but no real larger systems moving through central or southern Alberta that would bring any sort of substantial rainfall to the region."
The last couple of El Niño falls or winters that have been recorded in Alberta have been generally below normal in terms of precipitation but as Shelley explained pervious the temperature pattern is not as standard as it normally would be when El Niño is in effect.
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